Črni ponedeljek, črni torek, črna sreda, črni četrtek, očitno tudi črni petek - črni teden, drugi teden oktobra 2008. Črni oktober? Svetovni borzni indeksi so nižje kot so bili pred petimi leti, skoraj na polovici (ali pa že pod) vrednosti izpred leta dni, ko so bili na vrhuncu. Nič, kar so si doslej omislili v centralah kapitalizma, denimo Mednarodnem denarnem skladu in centralnih bankah, in vladah ne ‘prime’. Finančni trgi so v prostem padu, edino kar raste, je panika. Kmalu bodo na mizi še zadnji aduti: japonska centralna banka poziva k uglašeni globalni ’sprožitvi’ deviznih rezerv, indijska centralna banka je zmanjšala obvezne depozite za poslovne banke, ameriško finančno ministrstvo razmišlja o popolnem jamstvu hranilne vloge …, Gordon Brown, prvi minister vlade Njenega veličanstva, pred izbruhom akutne krize pravzaprav že odpisan in neštetokrat pozvan k odstopu, pa pred letnim zasedanjem IMF in Svetovne banke dramatično poziva:

When I became Prime Minister I did not expect to make the decision, along with Alistair Darling, for the Government to offer to take stakes in our high street banks, just as nobody could have anticipated the action taken in America. But these new times require new ideas. The old solutions of yesterday will not serve us well for the challenges of today and tomorrow.
So we must leave behind outworn dogmas and embrace new solutions.
Of course, the policies each country pursues will need to be suited to its particular circumstances. But based on the British approach, I believe through wider European co-operation and also co-ordination among the leading economies, there are four broad steps we must now all take to restore our international financial system.
First, every bank in every country must meet capital requirements that ensure confidence. Just as in the UK we have made at least £50 billion of new capital available, so other countries where banks have insufficient capital will need to take measures to address this. Only strong and solid banks will be able to serve the global economy.
/…/
The potential economic consequences cannot be understated. The role of banks is to circulate the savings from deposits, our pensions and from companies to those that need to spend or invest them. The cost at which banks can borrow this money directly affects the costs of mortgages for homeowners and of lending for business. This paralysis of lending from loss of confidence jeopardises the flow of money to every family and every business in the country.
Our guarantee to restart wholesale money markets in exchange for a fee has, I believe, broken new ground in restarting our financial system.
Thirdly, we must have stronger international rules for transparency, disclosure and the highest standards of conduct. Successful market economies need trust, which can only be built through shared values. So as we reform our financial system we should encourage hard work, effort, enterprise and responsible risk-taking - qualities that markets need to ensure, so that the rewards that flow are seen to be fair. But when risk-taking crosses the line between the responsible entrepreneurship, which we want to celebrate, and irresponsible risk-taking, then we have to take action to see that markets work in the public interest to reflect our shared values.

Paul Krugman je ob potezah britanske vlade v New York Times med drugim zapisal:

The United States and Europe should just say “Yes, prime minister.” The British plan isn’t perfect, but there’s widespread agreement among economists that it offers by far the best available template for a broader rescue effort.
And the time to act is now. You may think that things can’t get any worse — but they can, and if nothing is done in the next few days, they will.

Ni gotovo, ali bo Brown ‘na krilih krize’ oziroma z dobrim kriznim menedžmentom ‘obudil’ klinično že mrtve laburiste v nov mandat, a zanesljivo poskuša ravnati premišljeno in odgovorno. To ni niti tako pogosta niti tako samoumevna politična dobrina, kot bi se morda zdelo. Ne na Otoku, ne drugje in še zlasti ne tukaj, kjer guverner centralne banke deli brezplačne borznoposredniške nasvete, predsednik odhajajoče vlade molči (in vlada odobrava dolgo časa zadrževane podražitve komunalnih storitev), najverjetnejši mandatar prihodnje pa ponuja koalicijsko pogodbo iz mirnodobnih časov.

Za marsikoga so ti že davno mimo. Recimo za tiste, ki so vzeli posojila za nakup delnic ali točk vzajemnih skladov; zastavili delnice kot zavarovanje za stanovanjski ali kakšen drug kredit; zastavili stanovanje za posojilo, s katerim so kupili novega, zdaj pa starega ne morejo prodati; računali na dokapitalizacijo, zdaj pa ni svežega denarja (Paloma, Elan …); izgubili delo, ker se izvozna naročila zmanjšujejo (Revoz, Cimos, Adriamobil …) … Drži, poleg tranzicijskih dobičkarjev in ‘tajkunov’ je bilo že v zadnjem poldrugem desetletju veliko ljudi prikrajšanih, del’trajno’, del za krajše ali daljše obdobje, toda ‘v povprečju’ smo poznali le pot navzgor - pri gospodarski rasti, pri borznih indeksih, pri plačah, pri pokojninah, pri življenjskem standardu. Zdaj se nam prvič, spet ‘v povprečju’ vsem, v določenem smislu celo ‘tajkunom’, odpira pogled na ‘temno plat kapitalizma’. Drugače kot leta 1991, 92 ali 93, ‘ko nismo imeli nič, potem pa nam je privatizacija pobrala še to’, zdaj lahko razmeroma veliko ljudi razmeroma veliko izgubi. To zna povzročiti psihološki šok nepredvidljivih razsežnosti in če politika nanj ne bo pripravljena, bomo dobili močan ‘domači’ generator političnih, socialnih in drugih napetosti.

V nečem ima Borut Pahor prav, ne vem pa, ali se vseh razsežnosti svoje načeloma pravilne ‘diagnoze’ zaveda. Zelo verjetno bodo (že kar kmalu) potrebni (zelo) nepriljubljeni ukrepi (ne le ‘gasilski’, ampak tudi dolgoročni oziroma razvojni) in z njimi vsem ne bo mogoče ugoditi. Treba (se) bo odločiti.

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