Inflacija bo v novih članicah EU letos dosegla vrh, potem pa bo začela padati, napovedujejo analitiki Dunajskega inštituta za mednarodne gospodarske primerjave (WIIW) v julijski napovedi. V Sloveniji se bodo letos po tej oceni cene na drobno na letni ravni povečale za 6 odstotkov - junija je slovenski statistični urad izračunal 7-odstotno inflacijo -, prihodnje leto za 5 odstotkov in leta 2010 za 3,5 odstotka. Po tej analizi se bo slovenska inflacija šele leta 2010 vrnila na lansko raven, ko je dosegla 3,6 odstotka. Sicer pa v vseh novih članicah EU cene rastejo hitreje kot v starih članicah EU, ljudje v novih članicah večji del prihodkov porabijo za nakup osnovnih dobrin kot v starih članicah, pravijo na WIIW.

Na dolgi rok rast plač ne bo bisveno vplivala na inflacijo, ker se bo povečevala produktivnost dela. Izvedenci WIIW v novih članicah EU zaradi tega ne pričakujejo plačno-inflacijske spirale.

In the longer term, inflation and unit labour costs are shown to be moving mostly in tandem. Rising wages will not incur much of an inflationary risk as long as roughly matched by gains in labour productivity. As this holds true on the whole for the NMS, their longer-term inflation prospects are quite good. Price-wage spirals are not expected to spin out of control. In the absence of another round of world-market price shocks, inflation will subside fairly quickly. In the West Balkans, the inflationary spike will also be overcome relatively swiftly.

V novih članicah EU se bo inflacija umirila tudi zaradi umiritve gospodarske rasti. Za Slovenijo izvedenci WIIW napovedujejo, da bo gospodarska rast letos in prihodnje leto 4,3-odstotna, v letu 2010 pa 4,8-odstotna. Lani je bila 6,1-odstotna.

After a period of exceptionally high growth in the whole region of Central, East and Southeast Europe in the past two years, there has been some slowdown in GDP growth. Nevertheless growth remains largely robust. In particular the new member states of the EU (NMS) appear to be largely decoupled from negative global impacts, experiencing only a moderate slowdown in growth, except for the Baltics. The NMS feel, of course, the effects of external price or supply shocks. These effects should however be transient, provided there are no further price shocks in world markets.

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