Zaradi rasti finančnega sektorja v zadnjih letih je postalo vprašanje o prihodnosti evropskih finančnih centrov skoraj nepotrebno, v svoji analizi ugotavlja Karel Lannoo, izvedenec Centra za evropske politične študije (CEPS). Kazalo je, da bodo ti centri uspešni, ne glede na to, ali so majhni ali veliki, specializirani ali regionalni. Toda razmere se bodo spremenile, ker bo uveljavitev evropskih direktiv v okviru akcijskega načrta za finančne storitve na skupnem evropskem trgu prinesla bistveno več konkurence, ki bo zahtevala morda tudi boleče prilagoditve.

‘Single’ may also mean rationalisation for financial centres, meaning that as national borders gradually become less important in the EU and as competition intensifies, financial centres of the EU member states will also face intensified competition. The role played as a financial centre by some places that lack critical mass or specialisation may decline and be transferred to more competitive, neighbouring cities.

Lannoo ugotavlja, da je pojem “finančni center” pogosto v uporabi, a redko pravilno opredeljen. Finančni centri so pogosto majhni otoki, redko pa se ta pojem, prostorsko gledano, uporablja za velike prestolnice nekaterih članic EU. Na splošno je pojem finančni center v rabi za mesta, kjer ima finančni sektor v lokalnem gospodarstvu vodilni položaj, glede na delež BDP ali nacionalnega prihodka, ustvarjenega s finančnimi storitvami in/ali delež zaposlenih, po številu finančnih institucij in podobno. Splošno sprejete definicije za to pa ni. Na splošno velja neko mesto za finančni center, če izpolnjuje večino omenjenih pogojev, ima borzo, sedeže več večjih finančnih institucij, znanega nadzornika in/ali centralno banko, ima pomembno število odvetniških pisarn in svetovalnih podjetij.

^{Within financial centres, further distinctions can be made. The International Monetary Fund (IMF, 2000) distinguishes three groups of financial centres:
• International financial centres (IFCs) offer the full range of financial services, are characterised by deep and liquid markets with diverse sources and uses of funds,
supporting large domestic economies (e.g. London, New York and Tokyo), hosting several internationally active banks. They have the regulatory and supervisory frameworks to safeguard the reliability of contractual relationships and the integrity of the financial system.
• Regional financial centres (RFCs) feature welldeveloped financial markets and infrastructure, associated with smaller domestic economies, and more regionally focused banks, which intermediate funds in and out of their regions.
• Offshore financial centres (OFCs) are much smaller and provide more limited specialist services. It refers to countries or territories where the financial sector is large
as compared to the domestic economy, moderately regulated, taxed at a low level and providing services mainly to non-residents.}

Uporabna razlika je tudi med funkcionalnimi centri, kjer finančni sektor predstavlja dinamično realno gospodarstvo, in knjižnimi centri, ki so v glavnem posredniki za transakcije, za katere se vrednost oblikuje drugje. Karel Lannoo ugotavlja, da sta v Evropi nqjbolj uspešno strategijo uporabila Dublin in Luksemburg, ki sta postala pomembnejša finančna centra iz majhnih, loklanih in regionalnih centrov, brez finančnega zaledja. Najbolj znan nov finančni center na globalni ravni ravnokar nastaja Dubai.

_{Before a financial centre can be developed, some basic conditions must be fulfilled. The following are commonly accepted to be the basic ingredients:
• Successful economy
• Open and international
• Political/legal stability
• Strong human capital base
• Sound regulatory and supervisory framework
• Lenient tax regime and
• Well-developed transport and telecommunications
infrastructure, robust payment and securities settlement
systems.}

V EU je največ finančnih centrov na svetu, predvsem po številu, najverjetneje pa tudi po velikosti poslov. London je po Lannoojevi oceni vsekakor glavni finančni center v Evropi, če ne tudi na svetu, čeprav je po številu zaposlenih bistveno manjši od New Yorka. Tesno mu sledi Pariz, ki pa zaostaja po slovesu. Frankfurt je bistveno manjši, je pa v zadnjih letih, odkar ima tam sedež Evropska centralna banka, bistveno pridobil na pomenu. Zürich je najbrž mejni primer mednarodnega finančnega centra, a je skupaj z Ženevo visoko na lestvici po konkurenčnosti in velikosti. Zürich in Ženeva sta močna nišna centra za zasebno bančništvo in za upravljanje s premoženjem.

Of the 50 centres ranked by Global Financial Centres Index, almost half are European (24), although there are only four in the top ten. Eight financial centres are North-American and seven are in South-East Asia, which again emphasises the high concentration, or fragmentation, of financial centres in Europe. The GFCI assesses financial centres in terms of five key competitiveness areas: people (human capital),
business environment (regulation and taxation), market access (trading volumes and clustering effect), infrastructure and general competitiveness, and is based on surveys with professionals.

Za konkurenčnost finančnih centrov je ključnega pomena zakonodaja. V EU Karel Lannoo omenja program za oblikovanje skupnega trga iz leta 1985, ker je omogočil čezmejno opravljanje finančnih storitev, pa tudi minimalno poenotenje in priznavanje pravil. Za banke je pomembna druga bančna direktiva iz leta 1989, ki določa temeljne pogoje za opravljanje bančnih storitev po vsej EU. Za borze in borzne posrednike tovrstne pogoje predpisuje direktiva o investicijskih storitvah iz leta 1993, za zavarovalnice pa tretja zavarovalniška direktiva iz leta 1992. Maja leta 1999 so finančni ministri potrdili akcijski načrt za finančne storitve, v katerem je 42 ukrepov za oblikovanje skupnega trga, ki jih je bilo treba uveljaviti do leta 2005. Od tega jih je 40 uveljavljenih.

Zaradi tega uživajo finančni centri vse manj zaščite nacionalnih trgov. Karel Lannoo ugotavlja, da je največja težava evropskih finančnih centrov rigidnost trga dela in razdrobljenost trga. Neprožnost pri zaposlovanju in odpuščanju zaposlenih, visoki davki in prispevki za zaposlene in visoki davki so strup za finančne centre. Izjema v EU je Velika Britanija, ki ima za finančno področje zelo liberalen režim, zaradi tega je London najbolj privlačen finančni center v Evropi in je več bank že preselilo svoje poslovanje v ta center.

Prevelike razlike med trgi pa je druga ovira za razvoj evropskih finančnih centrov. Razlike v predpisih in pri nadzoru lokalne oblasti lahko uporabijo za uveljavljanje protekcionističnih ukrepov, kar je ovira za konkurenco in konkurenčnost. Najbolj odmeven primer takšnega ukrepanja je bil prevzem italijanske banke Antonveneta s strani nizozemske banke ABN-AMRO leta 2005, zaradi katerega je moral odstopiti guverner italijanske centralne banke Antonio Fazio, evropska komisija pa je omejila moč nadzornih organov.

Other areas that have been insufficiently harmonised so far are securities settlement, taxation (dividend income, corporate taxes and VAT) and insurance regulation.

Relativno učinkoviti predpisi pa ne smejo biti razlog, da ne bi ostali vseskozi pozorni, opozarja izvedenec CEPS.

London, for example, which has a significant investment in maintaining its reputation as a well-regulated financial centre, suffered a serious setback when the UK experienced its first bank run in 140 years, with the near-default of the mortgage bank Northern Rock in September 2007. As observed by the director of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), bank runs happen in banana republics, not in a world class financial centre.

Za evropske finančne centre Lannoo vidi tudi priložnosti, po njegovem mnenju ni naključje, da nobeden ni v novih članicah Unije.

It is no coincidence that none of the new member states hosts a financial centre worthy of that name. Beyond the EU, there is also the standard-setting role of the EU for its neighbours, which again benefits the financial sector of the EU. In the context of association agreements, neighbouring countries are asked to adopt the same standards as in place in the EU, which facilitates access for EU financial institutions.

Kljub zaledju, so se evropski finančni centri zbudili pozno. Četudi so se London, Pariz in Frankfurt na evropski in globalni ravni promovirali kot finančni centri, so drugi šele začeli ugotavljati, kaj se dogaja. Se pa je med uveljavljenimi centri zaostrila konkurenca.

^{An interesting example was the election campaign trip on 30 January 2007 of the then candidate president Nicolas Sarkozy to address French nationals working in London. Sarkozy promised that, if elected, he would tackle some of the weaknesses discussed above, such as labour market rigidities or high personal tax rates. Only a few days after being in office, the French President received a delegation of Paris-Europlace, the organisation in charge of promoting the role of the Paris financial centre. In October 2007, the French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde announced measures to promote Paris as an alternative to London, proposing amongst others a new segment for initial public offerings, falling outside the prospectus directive. However, she did not develop proposals to reduce the personal tax rate.}

Zbudili so se tudi Nizozemci in Švicarji.

^{As a direct fall-out of the takeover of the biggest Dutch bank ABN-AMRO by banks of other EU countries, the Dutch Ministry of Finance woke up to the possible negative impact on the future of the Dutch financial centre and started “The Netherlands: International Financial Centre” action plan. It covers, amongst others, the regulatory and supervisory environment, the human capital base, government’s responsiveness to business needs and the corporate tax regime, with no mention again of the personal tax matters. In September 2007, the leading Swiss financial sector associations announced their action plan to put the country among the world’s top three centres of international finance by 2015. Amongst the action items figure training, efficient regulation and supervision, an internationally attractive corporate and fund tax system, and strong financial infrastructure, with apparently no mention again of the personal tax regime.}

Zaradi konkurence med velikimi bodo morali biti manjši finančni centri zelo previdni. Da bi preživeli, se bodo morali osredotočiti na človeški kapital in se specializirati, kar so nekateri že naredili. S specializacijo in inovacijami bodo tržne niše vselej obstajale. Luksemburg in Dublin sta zgledna primera za to. Podatki kažejo, da so se majhni finančni centri zelo dobro prilagodili novim razmeram.

^{Although there may have been some decline in the rate of growth of bank deposits, the asset management sector has seen impressive growth rates. The negative impact of the EU’s taxation of savings directive has been limited so far, and smaller centres have withstood well the international action for more transparency and tighter supervision in the wake of 9/11. But also for them there is no reason to sit back. Maintaining the competitive position of smaller financial centres requires strong vigilance at all levels.}

Objavljeno pod gospodarstvo | | |