Po najnovejših napovedih evropske komisije se bo gospodarstvo EU (in evroobmočja) na raven lanskega tretjega četrtletja vrnilo v tretjem četrtletju prihodnjega leta, dno pa bo recesija predvidoma dosegla v tretjem četrtletju letošnjega leta. Nerazveseljiva podrobnost zmerno spodbudne ocene: zaposlenost ne bo sledila okrevanju gospodarstva, ampak bo za njim zaostajala, kar bo pritiskalo na plače in inflacijo.
Against this backdrop, GDP is forecast to contract by 4% in both the EU and the euro area in 2009, implying a further downward revision of some 2 percentage points (pps.) compared with the interim forecast of January 2009. The downturn is projected to be broadbased, with almost all Member States expected to post negative growth rates this year. For both areas, GDP should stabilise in 2010 with a subdued recovery gradually taking hold on the back of improving financial conditions, stronger external demand, and supportive macroeconomic policies. Inflation is expected to continue to fall rapidly this year, entering negative territory for a few months in the middle of the year, while unemployment soars and budget deficit and debt rise sharply.
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Reflecting the usual lag between changes in employment and output, employment is expected to contract by 2½% in both the EU and the euro area this year and a further 1½% in 2010. Employment could thus fall by some 8½ million in the EU over the forecast period, in sharp contrast with the net job creation of about 9½ million during 2006-2008. As a result, the unemployment rate is projected to increase to close to 11% in the EU by 2010 (11½% in the euro area), 1½ pps. higher than in the January outlook.
Za Slovenijo komisija napoveduje, kar v glavnem že vemo od Umarja, mimogrede pa opozarja na zniževanje izvozne konkurenčnosti.
As a highly open economy, Slovenia is expected to suffer significantly from the deepening global recession. Real GDP is projected to contract by 3.4% in 2009, followed by positive growth in 2010 (0.7%). Business and consumer confidence indicators fell further in the first few months of 2009, confirming the downward momentum. All demand components except public consumption should to decline in 2009. A sharp fall in employment and a rise in precautionary savings will dampen private consumption in spite of lower inflation and additional transfers. Higher public investment, to modernise the railway network, will be more than offset by an across-the-board cut in private investment. The global recession, together with a further loss in competitiveness, should entail a marked fall in exports. With imports contracting significantly in response to the decline in exports and investment, the contribution of net exports to growth should be slightly positive.
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The recession is forecast to lead to significant job losses of close to 5%, while the unemployment rate should reach 6¾%. An assumed fall in the labour force, driven by a reversal of the net immigration recorded in previous years, limits the impact on unemployment. At the same time, the government’s wage subsidy to encourage shorter working time is expected to stem the number of layoffs. A further but less pronounced worsening of the labour market is foreseen for 2010.
While average wages grew by as much as 8¾% in 2008, the forecast assumes that the agreed pay terms for the private sector will not be applied in full in 2009 as a result of the ongoing recession. Instead, nominal wages are expected to broadly stabilise. In the public sector, the recently-revised collective wage agreement still foresees a significant rise in wages. The projected moderate rebound in economic activity in 2010 is expected to result in an acceleration in overall wage growth.
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