Irce bodo preostale članice poskušale na mehek način prepričati, naj na ponovljenem referendumu, po vsej verjetnosti marca 2009, podprejo lizbonsko pogodbo, verjetno z dodatnimi obrazložitvami, da bodo lahko ohranili svojo ugodno davčno politiko, nevtralnost in prepoved splava, izhaja iz razprave, ki so jo na zasedanju evropskega sveta opravili voditelji članic EU.
The food was traditional Slovenian and they toasted Treaty saviour Gordon Brown with a crisp Sivi Pinot, Movia 2005 before moving on to a tasty 1989 Cabernet Sauvignon, Vinakoper. As the waiters served Postrvji fille (a trout fillet, accompanied with spinach and pumpkin), Irish leader Brian Cowen gave his first read out on the referendum rejection. Then as the diners moved on to Jagnjecja zarebrnica po Idrijsko (Rack of lamb cooked in the style of Idrija, a region known for lace and mercury mines), leader after leader made it clear that Mr Cowen is expected to concentrate his mind on how Ireland can sort out the mess its voters have got the EU into.
Kako bi bilo mogoče najhitreje rešiti “irsko krizo”, sta pred zasedanjem voditeljev objavila Daniel Gros in Sebastian Kurpas, izvedenca bruseljskega Centra za evropske politične študije (CEPS). Če članice EU res želijo ratificirati in uveljaviti lizbonsko pogodbo, je lahko rešitev precej preprosta, razlagata. Podpisati morajo samo povzetek, ki je bil objavljen v uradnem listu EU. Irska vlada ga zdaj ne bi mogla podpisati, vendar s tem te države, ki je 35 let uspešna članica EU in do zdaj ni z ničemer nakazala, da je proti Uniji, ne bi izključili. Dali bi ji le možnost, da bi vlada v razumnem času pripravila seznam izjem oziroma dodatne protokole, s katerimi bi na naslednjem referendumu zagotovila podporo volivcev.
This consolidated text would represent a new coherent treaty and it could enter into force once it is ratified by all the 26 member countries that have signed it. Ratification of the consolidated text should be possible to achieve within a short period of time as no further referenda would be necessary and all 26 (or possibly 25) member states are committed to ratify the Lisbon Treaty using parliamentary procedures (with 18 having already done so).
Članice, ki so lizbonsko pogodbo že ratificirale v svojih parlamentih, bi lahko po hitrem postopku ratificirale še povzetek, ki je v primerjavi z originalno lizbonsko pogodbo povezano in berljivo besedilo skupaj z obstoječimi pogodbami. V tem primeru bi ujeli rok, da bi nova pogodba začela veljati pred iztekom mandata sedanjega evropskega parlamenta, kakor je bilo načrtovano.
Ko bi nova pogodba oziroma povzetek začel veljati, bi na Irskem razpisali nov referendum z vprašanjem Ali se Irska želi priključiti Evropski uniji s 26 članicami, v kateri velja lizbonska pogodba? Volivcem bi v tem primeru povedali, da Irska zapušča EU, če večina glasuje proti. Daniel Gros in Sebastian Kurpus sta prepričana, da bi v tem primeru Irci glasovali za lizbonsko pogodbo z mogočimi dodatnimi protokoli, v katerih bi jim zagotovili ohranitev sedanje davčne politike, nevtralnosti in prepoved splava.
To put the choice in such stark terms to the Irish electorate is entirely appropriate since the requirement of unanimity creates a giant external effect: A ‘no’ vote imposes a high cost on all EU members. Hence the electorate in any one country, especially a small one, is entirely rational to vote no. They can thus punish at a low cost to themselves their own political class. The overwhelming costs in terms of a badly functioning Union are borne by the other members. No political system can survive for long under such a misaligned incentive structure.
Izvedenca CEPS ugotavljata, da sta podpis in ratifikacija povzetka edina rešitev, ki je pravno in politično izvedljiva. Vsebina lizbonske pogodbe bi ostala nespremenjena, zaradi tega ne bi bila potrebna nova pogajanja, ratificirati bi ga bilo mogoče hitro, Irci pa bi se na novem referendumu odločali o jasnem vprašanju: ali ostanejo v EU ali jo zapustijo.
The ratification of the consolidated Treaties is thus the only scenario that is both legally and politically feasible. With the content of the Treaty remaining exactly the same, no further negotiations would be necessary. Ratification by the 26 could be fast and would lead to a situation in which an Irish ‘no’ would not prevent them from advancing. Finally, a second referendum would confront the Irish with two very concrete and easily understandable alternatives: in or out.
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