Kriza na svetovnih finančnih trgih ne pojenja, največje centralne banke so se po treh mesecih spet odločile za usklajeno akcijo. Tokrat bodo bankam poslale injekcijo v višini 250 milijard dolarjev. Takoj, ko je bila objavljena novica o novi pomoči, se je padanje delniških tečajev in dolarja ustavilo, rahlo znižala se je celo cena nafte, ki je včeraj dopoldne dosegla rekordno ceno 109, 72 (za sod ameriške lahke nafte) oziroma 105,82 dolarja (za sod severnomorske nafte brent); prvič pa se je nad 100 dolarjev za sod povzpela tudi nafta iz držav Opeca.
Popoldne je cena severnoameriške nafte padla na 108,75 dolarja za sod, cena nafte brent pa na 105,25 dolarja za sod. Ker se razmere v nobeni od proizvajalk nafte niso spremenile, ponudba je dovolj visoka, neurje nikjer ni onemogočilo črpanja ali dobave, je bil edini razlog za dopoldanski dvig cen po oceni analitikov šibek dolar in padanje delniških tečajev; investitorji vlagajo v nafto, ker računajo, da ne bodo na izgubi. V trgovinah v New Yorku, recimo, ni nikakršen problem plačati z evri, trgovci celo raje vidijo, da potrošnik plača z evri kot dolarji in kupce z napisi vabijo k temu.
Na finančnem trgu pa je zaupanje med bankami še zmeraj na tako nizki ravni, da si druga drugi ne upajo posojati denarja, ker imajo v svojih bilancah preveč rizičnih hipotek, za katere ni mogoče predvideti vrednosti. Te hipoteke so nastale v ZDA, kjer so banke na podlagi hipotek dajale posojila za nakup hiš ljudem, ki v skladu z bančnimi standardi niso bili ustrezno kreditno sposobni.
Behind all the central bank’s innovative moves is an attempt to flush the financial system with money and safe government bonds so that banks will feel comfortable lending to each other. Banks that have too many volatile mortgage bonds on their books, whose value is uncertain, have been reluctant to continue lending at historic levels. As a result, highly leveraged hedge funds are being told to sell assets to meet margin calls, and the cost of borrowing has risen across the financial system, threatening to make it more costly for even robust businesses to invest. That in turn threatens turning a fin-ancial crisis into a trigger for a recession in the real economy.
Po pisanju časopisa Independent analitki niso enotni glede učinka nove finančne injekcije, ki jo je predlagala ameriška centralna banka Federal Reserve (FED), pridružile pa so se ji Evropska centralna banka (ECB), britanska, kanadska in švicarska centralna banka.
Analysts were split on whether the moves might be enough to end the downward spiral in the debt markets. Joseph Brusuelas, economist at IDEAglobal, said: “By permitting borrowers to put up devalued collateral that currently contaminates the balance sheets of financial institutions, this should provide a generous bout of temporary relief to portfolios overweight with distressed assets. But we do not see this as a panacea. For now, the current Fed move will purchase a fortnight of peace.”
Časopis Wall Street Journal opozarja na leto 2003, ko je FED znižal obrestno mero na 1 odstoek. Svet je bil takrat zaskrbljen, da mu bo zmanjkalo zalog in bo prisiljen poseči po nekonvencionalnih orodjih. Zdaj leta 2008 je treba vprašati, ali FED zmanjkuje nekonvencionalnih orodij.
Now, in 2008, it’s worth asking if the Fed could run out of unconventional ammunition. Tuesday’s offer to lend $200 billion of its Treasury holdings to primary dealers in return for mortgage-backed securities both guaranteed by the government-sponsored enterprises (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) and not (private-label MBS) means it will have eventually sold or pledged half of its Treasurys, limiting how many more of these tricks it can pull off.
International Herald Tribune ugotavlja, da FED vse manj dvomi, da je ameriško gospodarstvo v recesiji. Zaradi tega bodo podjetja in potrošniki vse težje dobili posojila za nakup opreme, gradnjo novih tovarn in nakup hiš.
Fed officials worry that the deepening credit squeeze will aggravate a sharp slowdown in the world’s largest economy by making it even harder for consumers and businesses to borrow money for houses, new equipment or new factories.
Guverner slovenske centralne banke Marko Kranjec je pred nedavnim na zajtrku ameriške gospodarske zbornice dejal, da slovenske banke v svojih bilancah nimajo spornih hipotek, a vendarle si na mednarodnih finančnih trgih sposojajo denar. Tudi zanje je ponudba omejena in seveda dražja, zato se tudi posojila za slovenska podjetja in potrošnike že dražijo.
Euro hits new record against the dollar
Jean-Claude Juncker, the Luxembourg finance minister and chairman of the euro group of countries that use the currency, was quoted Wednesday by Reuters as saying that the European Central Bank “should not take inspiration from the Federal Reserve.”
The U.S. economy, he added, “is on the verge of recession and inflation is at 4.3 percent,” so following the Fed’s lead would be “bad inspiration.” European growth remains surprisingly strong, with industrial production in the 15 countries that share the euro gaining 3.8 percent in January from a year earlier, official data showed.
The growing gap between U.S. and European interest rates gives investors an incentive to buy some European assets, driving the euro higher. The Fed’s benchmark rate is now set at 3 percent, and policymakers are expected to cut it by up to three-quarters of a point next week. In contrast, the ECB has set its comparable rate at 4 percent and is not expected to change it before the second half of 2008.
http://www.iht.com/articles/20.....s/econ.php