Mesec dni pred slovenskimi kadilci se bodo na prepoved kajenja v zaprtih javnih in delovnih prostorih začeli – pojutrišnjem – privajati angleški. Ker ima britanska tobačna industrija s tovrstnimi prepovedmi že precej izkušenj, saj so že prej kajenje omejili na Irskem, Škotskem in v Walesu, izgon kadilcev na prosto pričakuje precej sproščeno. Vsaj na videz.
In vsaj po številkah sodeč ni videti, da bi jo ukrepi kaj prida prizadeli: vrednost delnice nadnacionalke British American Tobacco (BTI) se je v petih letih več kot potrojila, vrednost delnice Imperial Tobacco (ITY) prav tako. Navzlic visokim in še naraščajočim trošarinam je marža iz poslovanja (operating margin) industrije izjemno visoka, Imperial Tobacco se lahko pohvali celo z eno najvišjih sploh – 60-odstotno.
Poraba tobačnih izdelkov pa vendarle pada – za 2 do 3 odstotke na leto. A le na Zahodu.
Tobacco industry analyst Andrew Darke of Evolution Securities points to the Republic of Ireland, which in March 2004 became the world’s first country to ban smoking in all enclosed public places. “The experience in places like Ireland is that immediately after the ban you see a 5 to 6% dip in sales, but then this soon wares off, and sales return to the normal 2 to 3% annual fall,” says Mr Darke. Its statistics show that the proportion of people in Ireland who smoked before the Irish ban started in March 2004 was about 26.5%, falling to just above 24% a year later, but then rising again to 25.5% in December 2005.
Kajpak, zahodna tobačna industrija padec porabe v razvitih državah nadomešča z agresivnim nastopom in naraščajočo prodajo v manj razvitih delih sveta. British American Tobacco tako predvideva globalno rast števila kadilcev in nespremenjeno prodajo.
Regulation of the industry continues to increase including graphic health warnings on packs, severe restrictions on advertising and tougher restrictions on smoking in enclosed public places. Sharply rising taxes in markets where tobacco prices are already high are leading consumers to switch to cheaper brands and this trend is likely to continue. Generally speaking, we think smokers will consume fewer cigarettes each and smaller percentages of populations will smoke. However, the number of adults in the world over the age of 20 is forecast to grow 11 per cent by 2015. As a result, we expect global annual sales will be broadly unchanged in a decade’s time.
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